Tuesday, August 31, 2010

OEX BWB Put Update

A few adjustments here. I decided to hedge my original position a bit by buying the same number of the 475/470/460 OEX Put BWB expiring this week for $0.25 credit. I also reduced by half my original position by selling them out for $0.60 debit for a loss of $0.60 per contract. I did all of this before the consumer confidence number and I can tell you that I got filled on the hedge position almost instantly. I guess the market makers thought that we had a good chance of going lower with a bad number. I might add that when you get filled instantly, that's not a very good sign as it means the market is more than likely about to move against you (those market makers know just a bit more than me. I lie, they know a lot more than me!). It would appear that even though we've had nice bounce off the number, the way they are still pricing the spreads is telling me that there is still a chance that the market could sell off this week. Under the hood we have cumulative ticks now positive and all other internals improving quite considerably.

Below is the adjusted position on the OEX BWB. Please note that the P&L is incorrect. Overall I'm still down about $200 in the trade.
However with the adjustment, I feel a bit more comfortable as I've given myself more downside movement should we get it this week. One of the main reasons I adjusted was that the market has failed to rally. The rally which I was expecting was the reason why I put the trade on in the first trade (last Friday). Thus when the market fails to do what I thought it would then I always re-evaluate and either adjust or get out of the trade entirely. One needs to be proactive not reactive when trading the current market. No need to be forced to adjust when you absolutely have to ie when the trade is already a clear loser....

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