Saturday, July 17, 2010

Friday's session recap

Well it was an ugly day yesterday price wise. All the majors were down more than 2.5% plus with the Nasdaq and the RUT getting special treatment as they were both taken out to the woodshed and spanked down 3% plus. Market internals were just ugly all day with no bounce in A/D lines or breadth and cumulative ticks trended down all day (that was a big clue early on when ticks were trending down solidly - a good indication of a possible trending day down as I alluded too when viewed with the other market internal indicators). The only positives for the bulls was that as bad as it was in terms of price, the cumulative ticks only finished at -40,000 (compared to a -100,000 figure a couple of weeks back) and volume was well below Thursday so it wasn't like the institutions were frantically pressing the sell button. It was more an orderly exit the whole day. Worst sectors were homebuilders, banks and internets. No surprise there as BAC and C both missed earnings and GOOG was hit hard, gapping down and finishing at the dead lows of the day (not a good sign). I think there is a good chance that GOOG falls lower to find support at 455 which is where the Person pivot level is and the 61.8% fibbo retracement of the last swing move. (The GOOG BWB trade is still up $70!!)

For Monday I would expect that some buyers will step due to the fact that $TRIN finished well above 3 and generally a weak Op-Ex day has generally been followed by a positive day the next week. As for the GOOG trade, I'm still in a favourable position as any sort of consolidation or buying on Monday is going to help. My trigger to exit will be below the 455 area. 

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