The GOOG trade is up! It's up around $100 at the moment to be more precise. Even though the stock has tanked $25 the 470 options have gained just over a $1 and the short 460 puts have gone up just a tad. It just goes to show how over inflated the options were. Even with a $25 move, the owner of the 470 puts is up only 15% on their investment. If GOOG had not dropped but that much or worse stayed the same or gone up, there wouldn't be much premium left in those weekly puts. For the time being I will monitor this trade and put a GTC order in for probably around 20% of the risk ie I will take it off for a $2.00 credit if I can.
As for the ES trade, I took that off for $2.60 credit right off the open netting a total of around $3.45 credit (original BWB was put on for $0.85 credit). You may be thinking as to what caused me to take the trade off straight away right?? Well a couple of things really, firstly was the fact that my quants are still showing bearish studies for today and the fact that one of my other quantitative subscriptions, that being the gap guide from www.masterthegap.com showed that a down gap today has a very weak historical win rate of filling (ie market likely to move lower instead of filling the gap). Therefore I made the snap decision to take the trade off. This is one of those times where one in the hand is worth more than two in the bush!!
At the present time, I'm eyeing off GS as a potential trade. I'm bullish on it given the news of the settlement and earnings is next week. I expect this move to be real as the SEC probe was a constant cloud over the stock but now that's it lifted, GS can focus on what it does best and that is to make a ton of money. I will be looking at a put BWB if I'm conservative (income) or a long call spread if I want to take on more risk (speculative trade).
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