Monday, June 6, 2011

Perfect place to bounce?

ES futures hanging right at the last swing low and holding. If there was ever a good risk to reward, defined risk trade then this would be it. ie Go long here for a multi day trade with a tight stop at just below 1291. Again I do believe that we aren't heading into a bear market (not with ten year bonds returning 3.1% versus the trailing earnings yield on the S&P500 returning 6.2%). Of course they are based on trailing estimates so the forward estimates may begin to come in weaker especially with all the weaker data points coming out. It will be an interesting session today methinks. Gap fade probabilities are somewhat mixed for this zone here so we still have to respect the fact that the short term and intermediate trend is down.

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