Monday, May 2, 2011

Thoughts about Monday's likely day structure

The futures rallied big time over the OBL news and all of them hit R3 pivot. They have come off a bit and are now trading sideways but still very close to R3. Given the size of the gaps and the fact that if we hold here and are thus able to open above Friday's highs, then that will favour the situation where we could see a trend day develop as backed up by historical data. My own thoughts are that we will probably see a mild pull back on the open (maybe to R2) but buyers will once again step in and try and push higher but ultimately we will not found any buyers and then maybe auction all the way back to 1365. My reasons for this is that I think the exuberant buying based off the Osama news a little overdone. Traders are forgetting that China reported weaker than expected PMI manufacturing and the fact that silver took a big hit today could also spill over to other markets. Therefore my best idea would be to fade the opening range high which should be established early in the day (first 30 mins). Of course I will be monitoring internals closely to see whether they hold up or not. If they do then expect something like a double distribution trend day (these definitions are explained in the book "Mind over Markets").  But risk/reward wise, I think a fade of the days high with a tight stop and 2 times the reward is what I'm thinking. If we do get some type of a sharp move lower, then get ready to go long once it looks like we have bottomed (ie smaller and smaller down bars or red candles and a bottoming tail hammer candlestick pattern to form on a 5 min chart).

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