Thursday, May 5, 2011

Short term bounce here

Looking at the market structure from yesterday, I think we should bounce here. Mainly because the bounce did not occur in the usual last hour of trade where day time frame sellers cover their short positions as per Tuesday's session and more importantly because price quickly rebounded from the low made at about 12.30pm E.T. This usually signifies a rejection of value and that price at these levels (around 1340 on the ES) represents under value. It can also signify the presence of other time frame buyers. It was also good to finally find some meaningful paper sellers during yesterday's session as locals had been short for the last 3 days off the open as paper continued to buy however not in such a volume that they were actually able to push the market a lot higher and thus force the locals to cover. The goal of any auction process and price discovery is about finding levels where 2 sided trade can take place. Indeed yesterday's session was the first time that we finally found paper sellers and therefore it bounced well before the normal 3pm E.T. reversal (when locals and others who trade in the day time frame start to cover their positions). It has to be said that on slow moving days (not much activity and volume) that it pays to trade with the locals as they will continually push to try and find paper sellers if they are short and paper buyers if they are long. Only when they get overwhelmed with only buy or only sell orders and are thus holding too much supply (too long or too short) will they be forced to cover (normally these are trending type days which happen straight off the open - think natural disasters and major geo-politicial events etc etc).

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