Tuesday, May 10, 2011

Bounce has been less than impressive

Although markets rallied higher at noon yesterday, the fact that we have spent so much time at these price levels is concerning. I was long since Friday but covered most of my longs yesterday morning and so failed to catch the rally. Most risk assets have come off the highs and have been trading in a range for the last week. I think there are still a lot of concerns out there, mainly to do with the sovereign debt situation in Europe, the debt limit being reached on May 16th in the U.S., the end of QE2 in June, less than impressive data points coming out of the U.S., higher inflation and rising interest rates in China and the other SE Asian economies. Bottom line is that the punchbowl may be coming to an end as governments begin to deal with the debt situation and we get a cut back in spending as fiscal policies tightened up. I think we could be heading for a range bound market in the next month or two unless we get some more clarity from the economy or perhaps more stimulus from the Fed in the form of further easing?? QE3? Weak data could actually trigger a rally as the markets price in more stimulus? Who knows but for now, I would be a buyer at around 1300 on the ES and a seller above 1365.

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