Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Modern Market Misconceptions

I was doing some thinking over the weekend after reading a few forum and blog posts and here are some thoughts stemming from that.

  1. Markets are not always efficient. In fact I would posit that they never were/are. 
  2. Markets are not free. (Especially these days with so much central bank intervention).
  3. From point (1), the market will never price something in unless it has to. This is because the market is made up of people and people are not rational all of the time. 
  4. From point (3). Therefore one only needs to be one step ahead of the market to profit, and not 30 steps as you will be waiting a long time to get paid. (This is the reason why I don't listen to all the doom-sayers and perma-bears because I know while they may be right eventually that doesn't mean the market will price in all these things until it has to. Think subprime ie it was known well before the crash of 2008 but yet the market kept going up).
  5. Traders should stop thinking of cheap or expensive but in terms of if I buy here, can I sell it for more later or if I sell here, can I buy it back for cheaper.
Anyway I will probably have more thoughts but at least I've got these ones on paper.

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