Friday, October 15, 2010

3rd quarter earnings play update

Ok, so I may have been a bit impatient with these trades as all of them got filled! On the GOOG trade, I got filled at $0.69 and with GOOG trading at 590 after market, this spread is likely to be trading around even which means I get to keep the measly credit. Nevertheless 3.45% ROI in a day ain't bad. It would be more if the dim witted folks at FINRA changed the margin rules on the BWB so that brokers would stop charging me double of what I can possibly lose! I will close out this trade today.

The other trades I got filled on was an AAPL Put BWB with strikes 290/280/260 for $0.13 credit and GS Put BWB with strikes at 150/145/135 for $0.05 credit. Both of these along with the GOOG are smallish positions. The plan here is to hold them through earnings and exit at anytime I can get 5-10%. Ideally what I'm hoping for is for a small downside surprise after earnings. You will notice that my breakevens on both trades are pretty conservative ($270 for AAPL and $140 for GS). I think the market prices the earnings moves pretty efficiently most of the time. For example with GOOG the at the money straddle price was around $40. So $40 plus $540 gives $580 but GOOG did do much better than expectations which is why it is at $590. For AAPL, the straddle price is around $23 which means the odds of AAPL gapping more than this is pretty low. Anyhow my sweet spot is right on the 280 mark so a move similar to this would be nice. Ditto for GS where the November straddle is priced at $11.

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