I have no positions on at the moment. I covered my ES long at 1252.50 on Monday's afternoon session as I wasn't feeling all that bullish after the pre-market sell off on the weekend on the news China had raised its interest rates. A bit of emotions probably got to me especially after I had held my long as the ES got to a low of 1245. I was also away from my trading computer and did not see that cumulative ticks trended up the entire day to finish at +70,000 or else I would have moved my profit stop at 1256 (retest of the highs).
My profit stop on the short 125/128 call spread on the long bond was hit yesterday as treasuries tanked (they've been pretty volatile of late). I sold it for 16 and bought it back for 6 so that makes 10 ticks on $15.625 per tick per contract. That's a pretty good trade considering an ROI of 18% ($625/$3400) on a 8 day trade.
FYI, quant studies still point to more bullish action ahead but sentiment is nearing bullish extremes which I don't really feel comfortable with. Under the hood, the tape action has been strong all week with another +30,000 finish last session on the ticks. Volume as you would expect is extremely light so I'm not sure you can look into it too much. I do see the VIX has bottomed and small caps and tech have slightly underperformed the last 2 days so perhaps that is good reason to wait things out and see where this market wants to go. Remember volatility has typically picked up early in Jan so that might be good reason for those that have sold some option premium to start taking some profits.
Enjoy the rest of the holiday folks and have a great new year if I don't post again.
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