One trader's personal insights and thoughts about trading the markets through market structure, logic and intuition.
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
Rally is running on fumes!
Well another day and another massive divergence between NYSE tick action and price. Whilst we managed a pretty flat session, under the hood cumulative ticks finished at a whopping -120,000. Quite a rare setup in historical terms. CBOE put to call ratios continue to come in extremely low (sub 0.50) which has bearish implications looking out a couple of months. The feeling I get is that when this abnormal resiliency of the market ends, get ready for a very sharp and quick move down. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if we get some sort of a contrived down day (ie sell off 3% on really heavy volume and breadth) soon. I bet you all the retail traders are long right now and we are right at the 61.8% fibbo retracement level on the weekly charts from the 2007 highs so expect some resistance here.
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