Saturday, August 6, 2011

Was that the bottom??

In a market without significant fundamental news driving it, then I would say from a technical standpoint, that the low of 1163 in the ES yesterday has a high chance of marking an intermediate term bottom. However, with all this sovereign debt news (ie rumour that ECB was buying Spanish and Italian bonds that supposedly caused the reversal yesterday) flying around and credit markets in a spin, then it's really hard to say as the S&P decision to downgrade the US credit rating may have an impact on Monday morning. At the moment all bets are off for longer term trades and the markets are really a day by day proposition. I would imagine that given the precipitous sell off in the last week, that margin calls are being felt and we are already in the stage where any multi-day bounces will be met with more selling. So for now I'd stick to that MO until the market character changes (VIX below 25 would be an indication of that).

No comments:

Post a Comment