Friday, April 8, 2011

Dollar weakness

The dollar index is extremely close to breaking a major swing low here. This is causing a major rally in gold, oil and everything else that is negatively correlated with it. No doubt a major contribution to the sell off has been caused by the rate rise in the Euro which makes up a large component of the dollar index. Next stop is the low that was made back in Dec 2009. Bonds are also selling off and yields are rising (which in the longer term should be supportive of the dollar but of course we all know that Ben and the Fed ain't raising rates till at least the end of the year). To me it's clear that so long as the USD and the Yen remain in bearish trends, the carry trade (ie borrow USD and Yen and buy everything else) will be the norm. This should see a continued rise in all risk assets.

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