Same market MO of late

It used to be buy the dips but the last couple of weeks, it's all about selling the rallies as I get the sense that the smart money is beginning to unwind the risk trade. Anyway for the ES we bounced off the 50 day moving average and now we are testing it yet again. Will we hold?? Hmmm.....we shall see. Interestingly quants are still calling for higher intermediate term prices but we all know that these are based off probabilities and probabilities doesn't mean it's a sure thing. It's like holding a pair of aces in Texas hold'em. Yes you are greatly favoured by the odds of winning the hand but that doesn't mean you don't suck out once in a while.