Sunday, February 13, 2011

Trending day example - Market structure

Friday was a good example of a trending day. I say good because there are better examples (ie 28th of January when we had that nice down day). Here is what the market internals should look like on a trending day. This is a snapshot taken of Friday's market internals eg. breadth (up volume to down volume), A/D lines (advancers versus decliners) and ticks.


As you can see all the internal indicators trended up for the entire day.On a perfect example of a trend day the market internals will almost appear as a straight line as per the yellow trend lines I've drawn in. Another clue that we had a very strong bullish bias was that the bulk of the tick action was squarely above the zero line as captured by the two purple lines I've shown. Also the moving average line as indicated by the blue is also well above 0 indicating the positive bias for the day.

As a side point, (it might be hard to see) but we had an extreme tick reading of 1008 on the NYSE ticks at 11:15 E.T (the times you see are local time to my computer ie Perth) at which point the ES hit at that time a high of 1326.75 on heavy volume and then proceeded to pull back 5 points to 1320.5. This is can be considered a short term tick exhaustion move and John Carter does a good job of writing how extreme tick readings can be faded as a trade setup in his book Mastering the Trade.

Anyway, it's all very easy after the fact to write up an analysis on the day's market structure, the hard thing is to actually determine in real time what kind of market structure is developing before it's known to everyone in the trading universe. However you can get good clues from keeping a tabs on the market internals. Like I always preach, trading is a probability game and it's always pays to keep the probabilities on your side!

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