Trade update and Wednesday thoughts

I am totally flat again. I did not go long the ES at 1268.25 because with the early morning tick action I decided to be conservative and target a fill around the pivot area which was closer to 1263.75. My condor trade on the ZB has also been closed out. The put spread was closed for a "5 debit and the call spread was bought back for "6 debit. This yielded a total of 8 x 4 + 10 x 6 ticks for a total of 92 ticks with each tick worth $15.625 giving a total return of $1437.50 on span margin of $4000. This is a 36% return in about 9 days (when I first opened the short call spread side). Overall a very good trade and it puts the account up about 5.5% for the calendar year. At this rate I will be quitting my day job very soon! (joking). Jokes aside, I think the pledge by the various governments to support the Euro area as being very positive. Still the markets are in my opinion overbought and there remains a good dose of cautiousness on the behalf of most investors. Earnings season has started so it will be interesting to see what the reaction will be. I think we may be seeing a return to more normalized market conditions ie term structure flattening and realized volatility begin to shrink from the craziness of previous years. It's clear that all governments are enticing or forcing people to get into the leveraged risk taking behaviour of previous bull markets. Will it end badly?? Of course it will. It always does. However, it will be a while before that happens so as long as the general conditions are favourable for risk taking then ride for all you can. That means buying the dips, corrections etc etc. Not a bad idea to set up bullish collars for most of your long trades (ie go long underlying but buy an out of the money put and sell a call when the market seems heavy ie like now).

Today's action might be a repeat of yesterdays. The locals are short and will try to fill this gap but the market is holding up well. Cumulative ticks are trending down at the moment but the risk assets across the board although off the premarket highs are holding up well. I may have another shot at a long here on the ES at around 1271. I have a feeling that the locals will once again try to push lower and trigger the sell stops before afternoon buyers buy the market once again. I'm conservative with my fills because I don't have the luxury of staying up the whole day to watch the market as being down under I need my sleep. I'm mindful of the big flush move that you can get once the downside momentum starts and I don't want to get stopped out.