Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Tuesday Recap & Quant predictions

NYSE breadth finished at 10.5% with the Nas doing a bit better at about 18%. A/D lines were both very weak on both with sub 2000 on the NYSE and sub 1800 on the Nas (Anything above and below 2000 and 1800 can be considered extreme on both exchanges). Volume was extremely heavy yesterday coming in well above the 30 day media. Cumulative ticks finished at -50,000 which in the overall scheme of things can be considered not that bad given we've seen negative ticks of greater than -80,000 before. Thus some of the quant studies are showing a short term bounce after yesterday's session. Other seasonal studies still showing further weakness for the rest of this week. However most of the other studies still favor stronger prices in the intermediate term time frame (1-3 months out). I'm still inclined to agree. Babak from Trader's narrative does a terrific job of summing up some of the reasons why here.

As for my current positions. I tried to exit the AAPL position not long after the open as the tape action shows there remains a lot of people who are willing to get long this stock in response to the gap down. No point holding  $4000 in margin on this play when my fly is unlikely to finish in the money at this point. Overall a small profit but I'll take nonetheless. The GS position is also showing a small profit and likewise the ESI position. I will probably try to exit the GS position fairly as I don't expect much weakness in it given its positive reaction to earnings and what happened to the broader market last night. For ESI I will hold through earnings.

I also entered into an AMZN Nov Put BWB for a credit of $0.41. Strikes are 150/145/135. Showing a small loss at the moment. AMZN reports tomorrow after market. I will be holding this through earnings as well.

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